Drive to the Finals Expert Pick: 6/17/08
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By Jon Loomer

Outside of a Sasha Vujacic bomb on June 12, this has been a very good Finals for The Experts. Paul Pierce kept it going -- and punctuated our revival with an exclamation point -- by scoring 38 points with six rebounds and eight assists. That's a 52 PRA, folks.

In the past, we'd be hoping to finish off strong and get ourselves into the top 100. We did that two years ago, came up just short last season. This year, we're just trying to get into the top 1,000. Shouldn't be difficult considering we're currently ranked 1,015. Sounds weak, but it's not all that bad. We're in the 97th percentile. Lots of peeps playing this season.

Now that our options are cut down to close to nothing, our decision is pretty easy. Vladimir Radmanovic or James Posey? Basically, one of the two players we should have picked on June 12 instead of Vujacic.

This isn't a slam dunk. I want to go with my gut. The Vujacic pick taught the valuable lesson that you can't always go with the stats. Although my gut said to go with Radmanovic, the stats showed that Vujacic outperformed Radmanovic in all of the home games during the previous nine. I grappled with the fact that the run was bound to end eventually, and it did.

My gut says to go with Posey at home. The stats tell a different story. Radmanovic has outplayed Posey in three of the five games in this series. Radmanovic had one horrendous performance on June 10 when his playing time was limited to 13 minutes due to foul trouble. The best player in each Boston game was Radmanovic. The player with the best PRA average during this series? You guessed it, Radmanovic, by nearly two full points.

I'm a numbers guy. I'm not going to start getting emotional now. While going with the numbers won't always work out, your odds are simply much better if you trust your numbers as opposed to trusting your gut. How do I know? The numbers told me so.

And if this series goes seven games, we'll be picking Posey on Thursday anyway. If you're like us and still have Posey available, you're hoping for a seventh game. The other 97% or so of people out there will be using players who may not even see the court. We like that.

Play Drive to the Finals Now!

Vlad Radmanovic, LALWhen: Tuesday, June 17 at 9:00 p.m. ET
Opponent: @ Boston
Pts: 8.1 Reb: 3.9 Ast: 1.6
Playoffs Average PRA: 13.6
Most Recent Pick: Paul Pierce, BOS
Expert Pick Playoffs Total: 1,260
Expert Pick Archive
1. James Posey, BOS vs. LAL (11.2 PRA)
2. Jordan Farmar, LAL @ BOS (18.2 PRA)
3. Kendrick Perkins, BOS vs. LAL (13.5 PRA)
Perkins would be an option if healthy, but... well, he's not. If he plays in Game 6, you've gotta give him consideration. Otherwise, it's James Posey. I can't hate on you for picking Posey. It's a good "gut pick." Farmar's unlikely to outplay both players, but it's not entirely unlikely that he'll outplay at least one of the Posey - Radmanovic tandem.

Thursday
Oct. 9
2008 NBA Europe Live Begins

Tuesday
Oct. 28
NBA Regular Season Begins

Wednesday
Oct. 29
ESPN Doubleheader Starting at 8 ET

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